Is portfolio volatility a reason to change portfolio quality?
As we know, the term of crisis is a relative one. Many investors achieved less profit in the last years due to weak markets and stocks, but others have chosen the ‘right thing’ benefiting from the crisis impact and from mainstream trends as well: short Portuguese bonds have been profitable for example, besides energy, infrastructure, currency trading, Apple Inc. among others.
But the wind is changing as recession in Europe and overall inflation trends are looming very concretely, even facebook might turn out to be less profitable (and less fashionable) than expected, a potential Iran war scenario throws its shadow and unforeseen events (such as an Hungarian bankruptcy or a hawkish turn in China) might change the agenda anytime.
There are good reasons to assume that inflation will rise sooner than expected. Devaluating money can’t buy oil cheaply and political risks are pushing for new records. Easing policies within Europe weaken its external currency position dramatically, both monetary and psychologically. The European Commission does not seem to know much about its image outside Brussels.
Political uncertainty is creating pessimism that goes beyond economic depression.
There is a demand for change, for a radical turn, despite the mantra saying ‘There is no quick solution’. Ms. Merkel is patient but she can’t win by that.
If a machine is broken it doesn’t help saying ‘we really can’t accept its failure’.
If the demand for a fundamental reset is getting too strong, you can’t just say: wait, we will fix the status quo (at your expenses).
Historically we have seen several times that those who came to late were punished by history. If Greece is bankrupt, it is bankrupt and is has to go through bankruptcy in the same way as a draught cant be avoided if rain is not falling.
The alternative is devaluation of money: creating fiction, leaving pecuniary grounds, bubbles of no return. We all know that it happens already. The flow is increasing, nothing is fixed. Your portfolio is in flow.
But there is no option for permanent inflation, no chance of an artificial economy driven by ever more easing policies. Europe is in the sand.
This is why less profits and increasing deficits need to be accepted for now. Only if you are ready to lose now, you prepare the ground for future success. Straightforwardness is becoming the last strength.
Buy cheap now or expensive: everything you own might be of multiplied value after the crash that might happen not before 2013 or 14.
You need to turn solid rocks into flexible flows for now; you can call wisdom an atavism and you should do the irrational without compromise – for now.
Lately it will turn out as the only rational option in times of the irrational.
Increasing volatility is the best sign that things change. Right now, volatility is still by far on too low levels. Take risks.
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