A statement on Wed April 25th by Benny Gantz, Chief of Staff of the IDF (Israel Defence Force) indicate a potential deescalation of the conflict associated with the Iranian nuclear program. According to Gantz, Iran has not decided yet to build a nuclear weapon. Despite other military tensions around the world, especially in the South China Sea, the acute risk of a larger military conflict might be considered as significantly reduced at least for this year in the Middle East.
Building state interference to influence volatility contains an increasing risk for a free market system
A certain resurgence of acceptance regarding methods of planned economies can’t be passed by since the aftermath of the financial crisis obviously became the main focal point of political planning. Risk avoidance and a focus on ‘stability’ justifies state intervention as in the example of the actual currency manipulations as well as permanently renewed ideas for additional taxation and regulation. The recent idea of the US finance minister Geithner aiming to balance worldwide trade balance gaps by limiting national trade surpluses to 4% might not be the most ground breaking idea so far to turn international trade relations into a predominantly political framework.
While China, partly supported by Russia and Brazil, publicly justifies its currency manipulation with risks of social disruption in its one party ruled nation, its opponent in the US is now pushing for regulations of whole economies promoting a political automatism to meet external trade limitations. Meanwhile the European Union has come up with the idea of regulating commodity markets to dodge round inflation risks and some of its members are scrambling for banking taxations . The devaluation race of currencies seems to turn into a race of conceptual radicalisms aspiring to political domination of the markets. The first hard hit of this race might be political credibility, economic growth, geopolitical stability and democratic culture, or all of the mentioned.