Markets
Stock markets in Greece, Spain and Italy: rally or derail?
The stock markets in Europe’s hardest hit economies share memories of better times. Especially the story of the Greece’s stock market is nothing less than a tragedy given losses of more than 80% with the Greek ATHEX index in four years.
The situation at the exchanges in Spain and Italy is not much better driven by speculation when those marktes hit the bottom. Potentially Greek stocks might recover earlier than the one of these its neighbors as the bottom might be reached already.
On the other hand the Italian and the Spanish exchage have a much better perspective regarding their own survival of a potential melt down of the European currency system.
This is why investment there should get into focus soon. It might be greed and the end of patience that is pushing the markets down more to have respective benefits with its very likely recovery.
Crowdfunding – hype or future model?
There are no charts available showing growth figures of crowdfunding and crowdinvestment projects worldwide. But his new way of financing undoubtly has gained a lot more relevance since its first establishment in 2000. The public (or the crowd, the fans, the target group or just the ‘small investors‘) frequently finance hundreds of projects. An increasing number of investment platforms has emerged. Crowdfunding has been extended to crowdinvestment with new technologies to create returns.
The exotic hype character of the new way turned to a growing structure of innovation pools implementing much faster and much more flexible ways of participation than in traditional financing. Participation has become more face-to-face for investors, the growth of an idea and its communication now synchronized by ‘intuitive’ interfaces.
As a typical ‘web 2.0′ invention crowdfinancing is still fully decentralized; there is no association or banking organisation streamlining or analyzing data. Maybe this is the main reason why some critics still describe crowdfinancing as a temporary hype without sustainable potential. But less conservative ‘new economists’ do not insist on traditional data at first place but have realized the need of radically new financing models worldwide and the need of synchronized communication.
Checking out successful funding and ongoing investment campaigns on existing sites is the best way to get a clear picture of a method and a growing scene that sends signals of a fundamental change:
www.artistshare.com, www.kickstrater.com, www.indiegogo.com, www.rockethub.com, www.fundbreak.com, www.sonicangel.com, www.sellaband.com, www.startnext.de, www.inkubato.com, www.mysherpas.de,www.pling.dewww.visionbakery.com
Volatility likely to increase further
With ever larger factors of uncertainty caused by the Eurozone crisis and China’s partly hidden economic slow down the volatility of all asset markets might increase significantly in the upcoming weeks. Especially the European and Asian stock markets have to deal with a negative outlook even if single news contents might lift the exchange performances here and there.
This expectation is part of an overall trend reflecting a period of systemic uncertainty. The debt situation in the US that will require surely another extension of the debt limit again and the critical future of the Eurozone define a grim background that cannot be changed by short-term wins or temporarily better perspectives.
The main question is still if this setting will change over time or if the RESET button might become unavoidable to press.
In the mid term it is likely that commodities will benefit from this situation as well as gold and other precious metals.
The European crisis is back along with a weaker world economy
The apparently easing risks of the European debt crisis in the first quarter of the year and the positive figures from Central Europe tend to come to an end with the scond quarter as it was estimated on the volatility management platform in December 2011.
Spanish, Portuguese and Italian bonds are going to rise again and there is not much chance that this will change soon. Industries in these countries are still struggling with lacking competitiveness.
Even if the Italian industry is in a better shape than the one in Spain and Portugal, the challenges stay comparable, the mid term outlook is negative as long as siginificant cost advantages by a weaker currency cannot be realized.
There are signs of a new potential for investors in the European markets despite the bad figures: the cost advantages of Asian products on the world market are getting weaker steadily due to higher wages, inflation and higher energy and transportation costs while production in the Southern parts of the Eurozone are getting gradually cheaper step by step. Outsourced production might come back sooner than expected to Europe, especially to the South.
But the political framework is still not set to encourage and boost these chances. Overall figures do not leave much space for optimists. But investors with long term strategies are already back on the scene in Europe.
